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WEATHER
El Nino (weather)

An El Niño winter is coming. What does that mean for snow this year?

Doyle Rice
USA TODAY

How much snow will you see this winter? It's the big question as the colder, wintry weather moves in.

Newly released maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provide a clue. While they aren't forecasts, they show where and how much snow has fallen during previous El Niño winters.

A potentially potent El Niño – a natural warming of ocean water in the Pacific Ocean – is predicted to be the main driver of weather across the nation over the next few months, according to the winter forecast from NOAA released in October.

Looking back at what happened during past El Niño winters gives meteorologists a guide to what may happen this winter, forecasters say, but with a caveat: "El Niño nudges the odds in favor of certain climate outcomes, but never ensures them," said Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in a recent blog post.

A pedestrian crosses a snow-covered road Wednesday in Helena, Mont. The first major snowstorm of the season dropped up to a foot of snow in the Helena area by te morning, canceling some school bus routes.

The 'great snowfall suppressor'

Overall, L'Heureux said "El Niño appears to be the great snowfall suppressor over most of North America." This map, below, shows snowfall during all El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average.

Snowfall during all El Niño winters. The colors indicate the difference from average snowfall: Blues indicate more snow than average; browns indicate less snow than average.

As the map shows, there is a reduction in snowfall (brown shading) in many areas, especially around the Great Lakes, interior New England, the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, extending through far western Canada, and over most of Alaska.

The snow "winners" during typical El Niño winters appear to be the Sierra, the southwestern mountains, the Plains and the Mid-Atlantic states. This is due to the jet stream's move to the south during El Niño, as it tends to carry more moisture and precipitation along the southern tier of the United States, L'Heureux said.

NOAA winter 2023-2024 forecast:Here's where it's expected to be unusually warm this year

What about stronger El Niños?

This winter's El Niño is predicted to be on the strong side, forecasters have said. So what would this mean for snowfall? The map below shows snowfall totals for past moderate-to-strong El Niños.

Snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters. The colors indicate the difference from average snowfall: Blues indicate more snow than average; browns indicate less snow than average.

The big snow winners during moderate-to-strong El Niños are the mountains of the southwestern U.S., along with the Mid-Atlantic region. This includes, for example, both Baltimore and Washington, D.C., which have been snow-starved in some recent winters.

What is the role of climate change?

The map below shows how snowfall has changed over the past several decades in North America.

Changes in snowfall (in inches per decade) between 1959 and 2023. Across most of the United States — Alaska being the major exception — snowfall has declined (brown colors).

"Unsurprisingly, because of climate change, over most of the contiguous United States we have trended toward less snowy winters," L'Heureux writes. "This doesn’t mean that it never snows, or we cannot get big snowstorms, but that snowfall has gradually trended downward over time."

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