Forget a beer – how about a hug? How Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, other Republicans stack up on likability

When Tammilynn Elerath tuned into the third Republican primary debate last month, she was expecting to be wowed by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Then came the entrepreneur’s unceasing verbal attacks against his opponents.

“I was so turned off by how he treated those around him. I just couldn’t get past it,” Elerath, a 50-year-old youth pastor from Andover, Mass., said. Her attention almost immediately turned to the candidate taking the brunt of Ramaswamy’s jabs: former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

"I was like, 'Whoa, I really like her,'" the lifelong Republican remembered thinking. “We're supposed to be a government by the people, for the people, and I had never felt that my government represented me until her.”

A group of Republican primary voters who have spoken to USA TODAY over the last month echoed a similar sentiment about the former ambassador to the United Nations. They often point to Haley’s approachability, strength and warmth as the characteristics motivating their support.

That charisma could be playing a role in her recent rise in the 2024 race. Likeability has long been heralded as a key to winning elections – particularly for women in politics. And Haley appears to possess it in spades.

A CBS News/You Gov poll published this week found Haley has surged 18 points in New Hampshire since September. When Republican voters were asked whether they would describe candidates as "likeable" or "reasonable," she also soared high above GOP competitors.

More than 50% of those polled described Haley as likable and reasonable. That's compared to less than 40% who saw her male Republican rivals, including former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the same way.

The likeability double standard

For Haley, the sole woman in the GOP race, likeability may be more of a necessity than an asset, Amanda Hunter, executive director of the Barbara Lee Family Foundation, told USA TODAY.

History, and years of research, have shown that voters won’t support women candidates they dislike, even if they believe they’re qualified for office. And to appear likable, women have often had to walk a tightrope of seeming friendly, but not too traditionally feminine, and strong, but not overly aggressive.

So far, Haley has managed to navigate the quagmire with voters.

“When you hear her talk, it’s like familiarity. It’s almost like a warm hug,” Patty Rob, 58, said of the former governor’s personality after a recent New Hampshire town hall, before emphasizing Haley’s experience in the U.N. as a key driver of her support.

Rosemary Emond, 76, described Haley as “the girl next door.”

“She's so smart. She knows what she's doing,” Emond, who lives in Stratham, N.H. said. “And yet when you talk to her, she's so personable, sweet and kind.”

Other voters have expressed a similar affinity for Haley in conversations with USA TODAY.

“She's able to have a warmth about her even when she is swatting attacks away like a gnat on the debate stage,” Hunter said of the former South Carolina governor’s strategy. “She's doing it with a smile, and she's doing it in a warm tone of voice.”

Other Republicans struggle to connect on a personal level

Where voters and political pundits have commonly described Haley as “warm” and “approachable," many have used words like “jerk” and “awkward” to describe Trump and DeSantis, respectively.

Since his campaign began, observers have remarked on DeSantis' sometimes stiff demeanor. After the fourth Republican debate, "The Daily Show" even mocked the Florida governor in a video clip with fake narration that portrayed him as animatronic. Some 37% of voters in the CBS News/You Gov poll earlier this month described DeSantis as likeable.

Meanwhile, even some of Trump’s supporters have argued “nobody likes him” as a person. And at least a dozen undecided Republican voters in New Hampshire told USA TODAY the former president’s bombastic personality is among his major downsides.

“He drags everybody's name through the mud, even people on his side,” Emond, who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, said. “It doesn’t sit well with people.”

Trump was described as likeable by 36% of voters surveyed in the CBS News/You Gov poll earlier this month.

However, men running for office historically haven’t faced nearly the same electoral consequences as women for poor likability ratings. Voters are sometimes inclined to support male candidates they might not like personally, so long as they believe they’ll do a good job in office, according to research from the Barbara Lee Foundation.

And at least so far, that seems to have held true in the 2024 Republican primary. The latest Real Clear Politics national polling average shows Trump overwhelming leading the race, with DeSantis in a distant second and Haley trailing third.

Jenny O’Donnell, 36, told USA TODAY that she’s leaning toward voting for DeSantis in the New Hampshire primary even though she believes he “lacks confidence.”

“His military background is very strong, and I like what he’s done in Florida,” said O’Donnell, a stay-at home mom from Durham. "He's looking for the job and not just the title.”

When does likeability matter?

In recent memory, political pundits would ask which candidate voters want to grab a frosty glass of beer with as a determining factor in elections.

However, pollsters have moved away from looking at candidates’ likability and bar stool-mate qualities, said Ken Warren, a political scientist at St. Louis University.

One of the main reasons for the change is that likability hasn’t been proven to substantially impact voter decisions. One study conducted by Stanford political science professor Morris Fiorina looked at every presidential election between 1952 and 2000. It found no evidence likability swayed a candidate’s chances of ending up in the White House.

“I think Americans realize that they're electing a president. They're looking for somebody to run the economy and keep the country out of the war, not somebody they want to have a beer with,” Fiorina, who is also a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, told USA TODAY.

“What happens often is people talk about likability when they're really capturing a lot of other things that are really more relevant to holding office,” he said, noting factors like leadership potential can get swept up in the phrase.

And despite Haley's apparent popularity with Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, it’s not clear that's enough to push her into competition with Trump

“It's difficult to say that likeability doesn't matter,” Warren said. “All things being equal – and of course, the footnote says all things will never be equal – it's better to be liked than not.”

Contributing: David Jackson, USA TODAY