NFL playoff picture Week 16: Rams solidify wild-card outlook, hobble Saints' chances

Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday's game or Saturday's, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on the evening of Jan. 7.

Here's where things stand at the moment:

NFL playoff picture heading into Week 16

AFC playoff picture

x – 1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3), AFC North leaders: The first AFC club to 11 wins, Baltimore is also the first in the conference to clinch a playoff berth after Sunday night's victory at Jacksonville. But retaining the No. 1 seed won't get any easier in the coming weeks – particularly a Christmas to be spent in the Bay Area. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

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2. Miami Dolphins (10-4), AFC East leaders: They got back on track by grounding the Jets on Sunday. But now a team that doesn't own a win over anyone with a winning record in 2023 hits the serious part of its season with three formidable opponents approaching. Still, win out, and the Fins clinch home field and the bye. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5), AFC West leaders: A 7-2 record in AFC games and wins over Miami and Jacksonville keep K.C. viable to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. But the Chiefs probably need to run the table ... and can after a fairly comfortable win at New England on Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6), AFC South leaders: They've lost three in a row and four of six ... meaning they're really trying to hang on for the division crown as opposed to achieving much else in terms of playoff positioning. Fortunately, the Jags currently hold the tiebreakers to hold off the Texans and Colts – they swept Indy – who have both pulled even at 8-6. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans

5. Cleveland Browns (9-5), wild card No. 1: They've won two in a row ... barely. But Sunday's escape from the Bears allows the Brownies to continue operating above the rest of the conference's wild-card fray. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), wild card No. 2: QB2 Jake Browning's impressive performances the past three weeks, including Saturday's furious comeback against Minnesota, have them back in the projected postseason field – at least temporarily. A winless mark (0-4) against the division and 3-6 record in conference matchups could be very tough to overcome in the tiebreaker department. Yet victories over the Colts and Bills could also become positively decisive. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6), wild card No. 3: Beating Pittsburgh was as huge a win for them as it was a loss for the Steelers. Indy is currently behind Cincinnati due to its Week 14 loss to the Bengals. Be nice to get RB Jonathan Taylor back from thumb surgery soon. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

8. Houston Texans (8-6), out of playoff field: Solid rebound from their Week 14 loss to the Jets, beating the Titans ... in Nashville ... in their throwback Houston Oilers uniforms ... and without concussed rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The regular-season finale at Indianapolis could be huge. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts

9. Buffalo Bills (8-6), out of playoff field: They're officially on fire – on both sides of the ball following Sunday's 31-10 rout of the Cowboys. Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there's a strong heartbeat here. And Buffalo started turning its recent wins into playoff progress Saturday, moving head of Denver and Pittsburgh in the overall AFC standings. The division crown is even a possibility if the Bills can sweep their final three games and hope Miami also loses to Dallas or Baltimore. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7), out of playoff field: Their three-game losing streak may permanently disqualify them – head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis also quite problematic, which also sums up Pittsburgh's issues under center. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

11. Denver Broncos (7-7), out of playoff field: They got run out of the building Saturday night in Detroit, resembling an early season version of themselves devoid of playoff hope. A win would have vaulted the Broncos into the AFC's third wild-card spot. Now? A 4-5 record in AFC games parks them behind Pittsburgh ... and in danger of falling further. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders

NFC playoff picture

y – 1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3), NFC West leaders: They became the first team to clinch a berth in Week 14 and, on Sunday, the first to wrap up a division in 2023. And, with wins in hand against the Eagles and Cowboys, the Niners continue to march toward home-field advantage ... but will get a stern test from Baltimore in Week 16. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

x – 2. Dallas Cowboys (10-4), NFC East leaders: A combination of losses by other teams secured a playoff spot for "America's Team" prior to kickoff Sunday ... and then the Cowboys went out and played like they had nothing at stake in an embarrassing defeat. But Seattle's defeat of Philadelphia on Monday night and a better division record (for now) puts Dallas back into first place. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders

3. Detroit Lions (10-4), NFC North leaders: Big get-right Saturday, the Lions pummeling Denver 42-17 a few hours after Minnesota lost in Cincinnati. A win on Christmas Eve will secure the Lions' first-ever NFC North title. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), NFC South leaders: A huge win at Green Bay coupled with an Atlanta loss – plus New Orleans' defeat Thursday night – served the Bucs well. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers

x – 5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4), wild card No. 1: They clinched a spot courtesy of the Niners' win. Then they gave first place back to the Cowboys by losing Monday. These teams will go deep into the tiebreakers if both win out, but Philly still controls the road to the division crown. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

6. Los Angeles Rams (8-7), wild card No. 2: Thursday night's defeat of the Saints elevates LA to the sixth spot. Win out, and they'll snatch a spot. Remaining schedule: at Giants, at 49ers

7. Minnesota Vikings (7-7), wild card No. 3: Their 6-3 record in conference games maintains this precarious perch. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions

8. Seattle Seahawks (7-7), out of playoff field: Big as Monday's come-from-behind defeat of Philly is, it only gained the 'Hawks one spot. Dropping both games to the Rams will be a lingering issue, but a 6-5 conference mark pushes Seattle ahead of New Orleans. Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals

9. New Orleans Saints (7-8), out of playoff field: Lost control of their postseason path with Thursday night's loss to Rams. Gotta have upcoming game at Tampa. Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8), out of playoff field: They've gone from fourth in the conference to here in a matter of two weeks, Sunday's loss at Carolina a potential backbreaker. Only a slim Week 2 defeat of the Pack leaves them this high. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints

11. Green Bay Packers (6-8), out of playoff field: After beating the Lions and Chiefs, they've lost to the Giants and Bucs. So much for benefiting from what was mathematically the league's easiest five-game schedule down the stretch. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division title

NFL playoff clinching scenarios entering Week 16

Baltimore clinches AFC North division title with:

1. BAL win + CLE loss or tie OR
2. BAL tie + CLE loss

Cleveland clinches playoff berth with:

1. CLE win + CIN loss + DEN loss or tie + BUF loss + MIA win or tie + IND loss or tie OR
2. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + BUF loss + MIA win or tie + DEN loss or tie OR
3. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + BUF loss + MIA win or tie + JAX loss + IND win OR
4. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + DEN loss or tie + JAX loss + IND win OR
5. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + BUF loss + KC win + IND win + JAX loss OR
6. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + DEN loss or tie + MIA win or tie + IND loss OR
7. CLE win + PIT loss or tie + DEN loss or tie + MIA win or tie + JAX loss OR
8. CLE win + CIN-PIT tie + BUF loss + IND win + JAX loss

Kansas City clinches playoff berth and AFC West division title with:

1. KC win OR
2. KC tie + DEN loss

Miami clinches AFC East division title with:

1. MIA win + BUF loss or tie OR
2. MIA tie + BUF loss

Miami clinches playoff berth with:

1. MIA win OR
2. MIA tie + JAX loss OR
3. MIA tie + IND loss + HOU loss OR
4. MIA tie + IND loss or tie + CLE loss OR
5. MIA tie + HOU loss or tie + CIN loss or tie OR
6. MIA tie + CIN loss or tie + IND loss or tie

Detroit clinches NFC North division title with:

1. DET win or tie

Detroit clinches playoff berth with:

1. SEA loss or tie

San Francisco clinches NFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and homefield advantage with:

1. SF win + PHI loss + DAL loss + DET loss

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