Banning Trump from the 2024 ballot defies democracy. Courts shouldn't usurp voters' rights.

Many people in America believe that former President Donald Trump should not be allowed to run for the presidency again. These Americans have now been joined by a slim majority of justices sitting on the Colorado Supreme Court who, in a historic 4-3 decision, declared that Trump is ineligible for office based on the 14th Amendment’s ban against would be officeholders who have “engaged in insurrection.”

I doubt that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the Colorado court's decision. Yet, even if it does, Trump's critics should be wary of the consequences of disqualifying the man with the most powerful political following in America.

There was a time when it might have been less of a risk to our country and the unity of its people to have legally disqualified Trump from seeking reelection. The twice-impeached former president could have been legally barred from the White House if impeachment by the House had led to conviction in the Senate for Trump's role in the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Trump’s popularity, at that time, had hit a low point, and in the passion of the moment, it seemed clear to most Americans that the president was substantially to blame for that episode of national disgrace.

Kentucky's Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, agreed that Trump was responsible for instigating the riot, but he and 42 other Republican senators voted to acquit the former president. It was enough to kill the congressional effort to hold Trump accountable for Jan. 6.

At the time, many Americans believed that Trump had little chance of ever returning to the presidency. But now, Trump may very well win back the Oval Office in 2024.

Trump does face obstacles, of course. But the most powerful obstacles he faces to a White House return are legal, not political.

As things stand today, neither President Joe Biden nor Trump’s Republican primary opponents are positioned to defeat him. A suite of recent polls shows Biden trailing Trump by several points nationally, but more significantly Biden is trailing Trump across the key battleground states that either candidate would likely need to win next year.

Biden's job approval rating stands at only 37%, according to a recent CNN survey. Meanwhile, Trump is prevailing over the other Republican candidates by massive double digit margins in every primary state, with national Republican support for Trump standing at 69% and rising, according to Fox News.

While these things could all change, Trump could hardly ask to be in a stronger position with American voters.

We don't yet know either the political or legal implications if Trump is convicted of any of the 91 felony counts he faces in four cases. But we do know that the Constitution doesn't prohibit Trump from running for the presidency because of those charges.

Another view:Ban Trump from 2024 ballot? Why courts should rule he can't serve as president again.

Trump could still run – even from prison

The great legal peril that Trump faces, should he be convicted of a felony, is actual imprisonment. Were Trump to be jailed he could still appear on the ballot. He would not be able to actively campaign, however, a circumstance that one would normally expect to be the death of any political candidacy. But not in Trump's case.

So far, what we have seen is that Trump's legal problems have not eroded his support. In fact, the opposite is true. His poll numbers have risen as his legal jeopardy has increased.

If the Supreme Court were to uphold states' decisions to ban Trump from the ballot, then he truly would find himself unable to return to the White House. But he would still command the most passionate and perhaps largest political following in the United States.

Backlash from banning Trump would be swift

People hoping that the courts will do what voters appear unwilling to do should consider what that would mean for our democracy and for America's future.

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Although Republicans like myself reject the claim, a majority of Trump’s supporters continue to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Many of them also believe that the Department of Justice has been weaponized by Biden and the Democratic Party to destroy their leading political opponent.

Trust in our civic and legal institutions among Republicans, already at perilous lows, would burn through the Earth’s crust if the judicial system blocks the most popular GOP candidate from the ballot.

Trump, for tens of millions of Americans, would become a political martyr, one who would almost certainly foster rage among his most loyal supporters. And the dangers of civil unrest may rise dramatically.

For those who fear it, the return of a Trump presidency could seem like the worst of all possible outcomes. But it might not be.

Barring Trump from the ballot would not spare the American people from the consequences of our divisions. It could well make them worse.

John Wood Jr. is a columnist for USA TODAY Opinion. He is national ambassador for Braver Angels, a former nominee for Congress, former vice chairman of the Republican Party of Los Angeles County, musical artist, and a noted writer and speaker on subjects including racial and political reconciliation. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @JohnRWoodJr